#Modelling

I have been less enthusiastic about predicting if the Dolores will have a raftable release this year due to an average snowpack. In January there was a potential for a release when the model was predicting 20 days. But other than that the model has been fairly pessimistic. In the last couple of days the model has had some really high predictions, above 40 days. I think either the model thinks that we are close to having enough snow to have a release or there was some sort of weird reading at the snotel sites. Either way, I would say that there is a chance the Dolores runs this year, but I'd guess it is unlikely.

The following are scripts that I used to make a cultural prediction model. It uses topographic, hydrologic and biological GIS information to predict areas where arc sites likely occur on the landscape.